D7 activation = a newly-verified user places their first trade within 7 days. I'll break the verified→funded→first-trade path into its leaks so we ideate against the one that's most worth winning — not just the biggest number.
My call: ignore the −59pt verified→funded leak for now — funding intent is hard to manufacture. Chase funded → first trade (−12pts). These users already put money in; 64% opened Markets and bailed on the order-entry screen. High intent, one clear cause, cheap to fix.
Why this one:
Lift is a band, not a promise — , confidence because . I'd rather give you an honest range than a number I can't defend; the experiment is how we find the real one.
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The guardrail matters: a tiny "$10 starter" could lift the activation number while creating dead accounts. We only call it a win if first-trade and 30-day retention both hold.
I'll file it as a draft on the roadmap and add it to Friday's #activation review — but I won't commit it into a sprint. That's a planning call you and the squad make.
The real fix for "out of ideas" isn't more ideas — it's a loop. Want me to watch , and when it reads out in 2 weeks, bring the result back here so we ideate the next bet off what we actually learned — not another guess?